Trials predictions
Trials predictions
Wow, only 3 days left! I had a good practice today, it was nice and short, a few fast 50's and some underwater kicking. I'm proud to say I've been solid 27's from a push in a 50 meter back. I believe this is right where I should be for this point in time. I'd like to make some realistic predictions of my prelim time. I've been studying exactly what it takes to swim well on a race pace 100 backstroke. I would really like to make the semifinal session which is top 16. I believe it will take a 55 mid to make it back, perhaps faster. In my broken 100's (I swim a 50 meter back from a gun start and stop at the wall for 20 seconds, then finish the last 50 meters of the race) I've been consistently going 27.8-28.2, the second half of my race has been 28.0-28.5. These were all done with a drag suit on and not fully rested. I would like to think that with enough adrenaline, fully tapered, shaved, in a race suit I should be able to lead off my race in a 26 high or 27 low. I really want to bring home my race in less than 29 seconds. I think this will be very difficult for me, but I think it's possible. Now for some simple math:
1st 50 meters: 27.00
2nd 50 meters: 28.50
I think a 55.50 is a realistic estimate. I'm fully admitting that there are many variables here that I haven't mentioned. Everything will have to go right to achieve this time. It's more than a full second faster than I've ever swam in my life. I'm not afraid to admit that it's unlikely that everything will go right. It rarely does. I need to have a great start, perfect underwater kicks, I need to catch water in a controlled manner, have a great turn, get a good 10+ meters off the wall, turn over my strokes and never slow down on that last 25 meters, all while being conscious of perfect body position and stay in the center of the lane.
I will be happy with a lifetime best time. My best time is a 57.00, so anything lower than that and I'll be pleased. A 56.99 will make it a proud day for me. I would like to believe that I can do much better than that though. I look forward to seeing what I have in me with rest and a taper.